In his 2001 book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, Mearsheimer critiqued the US policy of engagement with China. He argued that the country’s economic rise would greatly enhance its military might, which it would then use to dominate northeast Asia, resulting in an adversarial relationship between China and the US.

During the interview with UnHerd‘s Freddie Sayers, Mearsheimer revisited those predictions, concluding that the liberal conventional wisdom at the beginning of the millennium, which he calls the “unipolar moment”, was essentially wrong. “The United States was pursuing a policy of engagement toward China, which was designed to help China grow economically,” he said. “My argument at the time was that if China grew economically, it would translate that economic might into military might, and it would try to dominate East Asia.”

Mearsheimer is best known for his theory of offensive realism, which asserts that relations between states are anarchic and driven primarily by power, not morality. He has previously opposed American military interventions, including the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and more recently US support for Ukraine and Israel. However, he views China as a greater threat to US power and is therefore more hawkish toward the country.

The US had a longstanding policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan, meaning it did not officially state whether it would intervene if China invaded the island. This was meant to discourage both an invasion and Taiwanese escalation over fears the US would not engage. Yet this began to change under the Biden administration when the President announced in 2022 that the US would support Taiwan if China invaded. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have remained ambiguous on the issue, with the former saying she wants to support “Taiwan’s ability to defend itself”, and the latter declining to say how he would respond to an invasion.

Ultimately, the US will succeed in preventing China’s regional dominance, but any conflicts leading up to that point remain a grave threat, given that both countries are nuclear powers, Mearsheimer argued. “The potential for escalation is always there, and we could end up incinerating each other,” he said. “I hope that if we have a major crisis somewhere down the road, that cooler heads will prevail on both sides.”