Despite the unpredictability of our current world, people continue to make predictions about geopolitical matters of which they cannot know. One prediction currently being thrown around, spurred by the flurry of optimism following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, is that of the imminent demise of the regime in Iran. Conservative MP Tom Tugendhat, speaking on the Conflicted podcast recently, declared that “the Iranian regime will collapse within a few years”, adding to a string of media commentary along similar lines.

The thinking here is that Hamas, Hezbollah, and Assad are the crucial dominoes whose fall will precipitate that of the Mullahs in Tehran. With the regime naked and its imperial project on life support, the Iranian people will mobilise, and the faltering theocracy will crumble.

Perhaps. But such optimism seems premature at best. Recall the many similar predictions of the impending fall of authoritarian regimes in recent years which ultimately came to nothing. Mass anti-government protests in Belarus in 2020, Russia in 2021, and Iran itself in 2022 were all meant to herald the collapse of these respective regimes. Similarly, anticipation of the fall of Vladimir Putin followed the failed mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023, and likewise with Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan after the attempted coup against him in 2016. Contrary to the optimism that surrounded these events, they all turned out to have been aberrations to the continual hegemony of these rulers.

Assad is one of the exceptions to this misplaced optimism about the fate of despots. But even here, while those who were certain of his downfall back in 2011 can claim to have been wrong on timing but right on the basic fact, this was only because of a combination of entirely unforeseen circumstances. Namely, the wars in Ukraine and Lebanon, which left Assad’s allies weakened and distracted, meaning no one was around to pick up the phone when he called for help.