How would this come about? The Constitution requires that a victorious president wins at least 270 Electoral College votes, which they must gather from some combination of the 50 states. It now looks possible that neither mainstream candidate will manage that. For a start, the “Never Trump” and “Never Biden” voters are on the rise. Americans are now keen to explore almost any alternative, and independents are offering one in the form of the “No Labels” movement as well as Robert Kennedy Jr’s campaign. Both have received relatively little coverage so far, partially because of the juggernaut status of the Democratic Party and the GOP, but also because third-party candidates rarely do well in American elections. But, given the staggering sense of frustration nationwide with Biden and Trump and the absence of a unifying figure, an independent candidate could have a historic opportunity.

If neither Biden nor Trump reaches the required 270 Electoral College votes, the Constitution dictates that the voting shifts into a “contingent election”. This means that the incoming House of Representatives will decide the winner based on whoever can form a coalition of red and blue states and win 26 of them first. The Senate would select the vice president. Given that most Republican or Democrat politicians are hardly able to look at each other, let alone agree any deals, it seems unlikely Biden or Trump could forge that coalition. But Kennedy or the as-yet-unnamed No Labels candidate, who actively cultivate the idea of returning to centrist bipartisan solutions, potentially could, should the presidency slip into the arcana of America’s 18th-century constitutional schematics.

This would represent a seismic rupture in American political culture, breaking the rigor mortis on Left and Right, possibly opening the door to European-style coalition politics and spelling the end of the current party system. Such changes may seem impossible. But there is considerable precedent in American history for such creative destruction. We forget that we are currently on our sixth iteration of the party system, which began in the Seventies with the demise of the New Deal era and the realignment of the Democratic and Republican vote. And before that, earlier in the 20th and 19th centuries, Progressives, Copperheads, Whigs and Federalists fought over American government, flourishing and vanishing with a dynamism unimaginable in the days of our sclerotic party system. Political parties can and do disappear in America.

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That said, the transition to a seventh party system would be nothing short of a revolution, and a potentially violent one. There would be a large gap between the election results in November 2024 and any contingent election, which only takes place after the new House members have sworn their oaths of office in the following January. That two-month void could descend into chaos, with contested results, claims of unreliable ballot systems, and wild threats made by reckless politicians. All this could make the hanging chads fiasco of the 2000 election, or even the riot of January 6, 2021, look like child’s play in comparison.

And yet such a scenario looms upon us, and the maths is clear. An independent candidate doesn’t have to win 270 Electoral College votes to win. They need only deny 37 votes to Biden and potentially even fewer to Trump. That would open the door to a contingent election. This would require hitting both Trump and Biden in their most vulnerable states, where each only had extremely thin margins last time around. But these tend to be the places that would welcome a moderating centrist voice, someone able to speak to the concerns of Left and Right.

Imagine if Kennedy were to win 45 Electoral College votes, just as George Wallace managed in 1968. This is conceivable given that polls show that a bare 27% of Americans now identify as either Republican or Democrat, and some polls show that 49% of Americans already identify as independent. It matters then that Kennedy looks set to announce that he is aligning his “We the People Party” with the Libertarian Party. That will automatically put him on the ballot in every state. He already leads the under-35 demographic, and attracts voters equally from Left and Right. His fundraising looks as strong as Barack Obama’s during his first presidential run.

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The alternative, No Labels, has a PAC to raise money, but no actual candidate at present, so it’s hard to judge what impact they will ultimately have. But they describe their mission as supporting centrism and bipartisanship through what they call the “commonsense majority”. And it is telling that Americans are drawn to such a vague promise even without a personality to pin it upon. Given sufficient momentum, and a measure of luck, either Kennedy or a No Labels candidate could perform well enough to deprive Trump and Biden of the prize, triggering a contingent election. Though unheard of in modern times, contingent elections have happened before: in 1801, 1825 and 1837. After all, it’s how Thomas Jefferson and John Quincy Adams each became president and Richard Mentor Johnson became vice president. While it would be a shock to see this antiquated procedure revived, the independent movements of 2024 already far exceed the more recent third-party challengers seen in 1912, 1968 and 1992.

Could America elect a long-shot outsider? It’s not unlikely, because they usually do. The last three decades of American political history is a catalogue of unlikely upstarts turned victorious presidents. In 1990, Bill Clinton was a relatively anonymous state governor and President George H.W. Bush was thought to be unassailable. No Democrat dared run against him. But then Bush stumbled and Clinton was suddenly in. George W. Bush also defied the odds: compared to the “Shrub” (as he was known), his brother Jeb was seen as the shoe-in. Next up, a young senator from Chicago called Obama surprisingly beat Hillary Clinton and then the well-known establishment candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney. Then came Trump. Even he was surprised by his win. In American politics, upset has become the rule.

No-one is talking about these possibilities yet. Instead, we are still analysing 2024 through the frameworks of 2020 and 2016. We love predicting the future by looking in the rear-view mirror. But there is a better way to understand what’s happening. Technology plays a huge role in defining the presidency. How we observe the race determines who will win. Bill Clinton and George W. Bush were the last presidents to win on TV. Obama won on YouTube at a time when few understood what the website could do. Trump mobilised a Twitter campaign when the platform was still a novelty to most Americans. Today, the media battleground has shifted once again, with most younger voters no longer watching mainstream media and instead relying on alternative platforms such as Joe Rogan. His podcast interview with Kennedy was seen live by 30 million people, dwarfing mainstream audiences. By comparison, less than 10 million people watched the second Republican debate on TV. We are witnessing the first podcast presidency, with Instagram in a supporting role. These are the best ways to follow this race.

Even if victory eludes them, there are other intriguing possibilities for these independent candidates. Trump and Kennedy are remarkably close on policy. Both are hostile to Washington; both want to stop the forever wars. Both support entrepreneurs and want to dismantle the corporate capture of the regulatory process. Both want to move power from Washington back to the states on all issues, including the biggest social issue of this election, which is abortion rights. They have some differences: Kennedy is a committed environmentalist while Trump leads the “drill, baby, drill” movement. But Kennedy already claims that Trump requested that he run alongside him. If Trump wins, it’s possible that he’d bring Kennedy into his administration, possibly to spearhead the attack on the regulatory process, a subject that is so detailed that Trump has little interest in it. Similarly, if Kennedy were to win a contingent election, he knows Trump supporters would challenge the legitimacy of his presidential mandate. A simple solution would be to invite Trump into the government, taking Trump up on his boast that he could “fix Ukraine in a day” and let him handle that ugly foreign policy issue.

As two ancient politicians arrogantly rumble their way to the presidential candidacy, American politics can seem more narrow and unimaginative than ever. But perhaps all the creative political energy is taking place on the fringes. Perhaps this year the date November 5 will gain a new moniker: are Americans quietly planning an “Independents’ Day”?

I travelled to Beirut, Lebanon in 1980, five years after the civil war was presumed over. It wasn’t. The remnants of a once beautiful city lay scattered among mounds of rubble and ash. I heard harrowing accounts of torture, beheadings, and rape. And by the seventh day, when I thought I was beyond shock, I watched, horrified, as two children in a Beirut refugee camp kicked a human skull back and forth like it was a soccer ball.

I’ve lived in Israel for 37 years. Like many Israelis, I’m no stranger to rocks, bullets, suicide bombers, and the blast of missiles fired from Gaza and Lebanon. Confronted with these things, I was never confused about what I felt. I can recognise fight, flight, and freeze from the pumping of adrenalin, a racing heart, and a closed fist. Sadly, with enough experience, you learn your instinctive responses to danger.

But nothing prepared me — nor my fellow Israelis — for October 7.

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October 7 was Simchat Torah, a holiday of love, joy, and gratitude. On Simchat Torah, we dance seven times around the Torah. Seven symbolises a cycle, a completion — both an end and a beginning. Time and growth are cyclical, according to Jewish tradition. Every seven days — on Shabbat — we read a portion of the Torah (The Old Testament) and on Simchat Torah we read the last parsha (portion). Completions deserve a day of joy. So we dance, sing, and eat.

Or run into bomb shelters.

On the morning of Simchat Torah, we heard booms from the Iron Dome shooting down missiles fired from Gaza. Because I don’t use devices on Shabbat and holidays, I asked Diana, my wife’s Filipino caretaker, what was going on.

“Doc,” she said, without her constant smile, “my best friend from childhood has been kidnapped and taken to Gaza along with her Alzheimer’s patient [an 81-year-old woman]. They dragged them into the trunk of a car.”

My wife has Alzheimer’s. I envisioned her being kidnapped and thrown into a cell in Gaza. Trapped in a locked room without her medicine, her family, her security, her TV, her multiple walks per day, her diapers, she would descend into a dark and terrifying place. Without a kiss from me, without a smile and hug from her grandchildren, without routine and care, I can’t imagine what form of hell would invade her empty mind.

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On 8th October, I wrote:

We are in a time of trouble — deep trouble. We’re one day into the war and I know of three dead soldiers, their three widows, and their eight children. I’m not alone. Today, on Isru Chag — the day after Simchat Torah, a day of lingering joy — every Israeli mourns a loved one, murdered or kidnapped.

My son calls me to tell me that his friend Nati was killed at the Nova Festival. They found his mutilated body near the multi-million dollar fence designed to protect us. My daughter tells me her close friend’s husband, a colonel, was killed defending the Kibbutzim.

Yet, this is only the beginning. Every man under 40 has been called up — our son, his friends, and the sons of my friends. Every former soldier over 40 is volunteering. Today, this fractured country feels whole. Right, Left, religious, secular, Ashkenazi or Sephardi, pro judicial reform or anti — Hamas makes no distinction. Right now — “thanks to Hamas” — neither do we.

My family from the States calls. Everyone wants to know how we feel. Mad, sad, glad, scared?

For now, none of the above. Purposeful, determined, unified.

*

More than 100 days into the war, we Israelis grieve as a nation and wage war with purpose.

My son’s commander was shot in the leg. One week later, he left the hospital and rejoined his unit. His story is ubiquitous. A young man, a medic in an elite combat unit fighting in Gaza, attempted to save the lives of two soldiers hit by an rocket-propelled grenade. He directed one soldier to put his finger on a hole spurting blood while he placed torniquets on the two shattered bodies. He told me this story with tears pouring down his cheeks. One of the soldiers died in the hospital. I held him and said, “It’s not your fault. You did what you could.” That was on a Sunday. On the Monday, he was back in Gaza, and he sent me a smiley with this message: “I’m good. I did my best. Thanks.”

I speak to my 37-year-old son, Aaron, daily. He’s a commander in a special forces unit. In our post-Freudian world, in which we idolise personal feelings at the expense of national purpose, he doesn’t speak the language of emotions, except for this: “I hate war. But it’s what we have to do.” I’m in contact with soldiers on the front multiple times per day. They speak like my son: “It’s what we have to do.”

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Last week I took my three married daughters and my daughter-in-law out to a restaurant. I wanted to spoil them. Their husbands are in the reserves; they’re keeping the home front functioning. Several of their friends’ husbands have died in combat. My daughters and daughter-in-law often have tears in their eyes. No one speaks the language of revenge or hate. We speak the language of necessity, of history, of homeland.

That evening, I learned something obvious but unexpected. The war has created a psychological phenomenon which we call the Wartime Commuter Syndrome. Every few weeks, our soldiers travel back and forth between the front and their homes. Between bullets and babies. Between the camaraderie of brothers-in-arms to children and wives with needs and expectations. Between the hyper-focus of a combat soldier and the chaos of competing demands. Humans aren’t built for this level of flexibility. When the dust settles, we’ll assess the impact on marriage and family life.

For now, we have a war to win.

The time frame for defeat stretches interminably, while our daily death toll rises. One hundred thousand citizens from the North have been evacuated to hotels because of constant bombardment from Hezbollah rockets. Iran threatens to obliterate us. Uncertainty breeds anxiety; anxiety leads to hopelessness. Strong leadership would be the antidote. Unfortunately, we’re throwing dice against the wall when betting on Israeli leaders to act with integrity — to act as if they deserve to lead a heroic nation.

Yet, we Israelis have faith in ourselves. The past 100 or so days have proven to us that beneath the seemingly irreconcilable divisions, love and commitment reside. And we have history on our side. We, Jews, have survived expulsions, pogroms, the Holocaust, constant wars, terror, internecine strife, and every conceivable iteration of antisemitism. And we will continue to survive. Of this, I’m certain.