November 5, 2024 - 7:00am
The first proper Shadow Cabinet assembled by a Tory leader in a decade and a half looks to be driven more by continuity than renewal. Early announcements have shown Kemi Badenoch handing the major positions to her vanquished rivals. So far, three of the five candidates who stood against her have been handed jobs, while James Cleverley ruled himself out. Plugging the Shadow Cabinet with influential members of the last few governments is a good way of securing Badenoch’s position, but perhaps avoids confronting some of the bigger issues in the party.
Mel Stride, the surprise entrant into the leadership race, has been made Shadow Chancellor, pointing to a continuation of Sunak-era economic policy. Putting runner-up Robert Jenrick into the Justice role suggests an endorsement of his attacks on Keir Starmer, with more attention focused on “two-tier” allegations and the release of prisoners. More controversial, however, might be the return of Priti Patel, who oversaw the significant rise in immigration which many Tory voters — and insiders — blame for the catastrophic scale of defeat in July.
For a shadow leader, there is little that can go right and a lot that can go wrong. Now there will be few set pieces to make a mark against the Government until the spring, when another Budget and the local elections loom. With the drama of a leadership contest gone, the Tory Party will start to feel just how far from power it now is and may start to get tetchy. This could be compounded in the spring by a poor performance in local elections, which Reform UK appears to be targeting hard.
Badenoch’s political survival relies on calming these jitters. She needs her backbenchers pulling together, and her potential rivals placated. A defeated rival who already has a network in place can be dangerous if they feel slighted. Jenrick, who mounted an effective campaign to win, has everything in place to do so again, while someone on the Left of the party may see another opportunity if Badenoch falters.
It feels highly unlikely that this will be the shadow team that fights the next election or tries to form a government after it. Over the next few years, a new vanguard of Tory talent will start to emerge — figures such as Claire Coutinho who apprenticed under Sunak, or some of the 2024 intake with political pedigree such as former Spad Katie Lam. The junior figures in the shadow operation may soon come to be more important than those who occupy the top jobs now. The question will remain, though, whether that will be too late for the party to get itself into shape for the next election.
The political imperatives around simply surviving to the next election will have steered the Shadow Cabinet picks. That’s understandable — the Tory impulse for regicide can’t be overstated. For a party that needs a deep consideration of where it went wrong, however, picking from the old guard might just be embedding the same mistakes. These early appointments feel like a holding pattern, not a deep renewal. For a party which needs fresh ideas and energy to have a hope of winning back power, that may be a mistake.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
Subscribe