November 4, 2024 - 10:00am
Iran is reportedly highly likely to launch an attack on Israel in response to the latter’s retaliation against an Iranian ballistic missile attack on its territory last month.
US intelligence services believe that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader and commander-in-chief, has directed Iranian commanders to prepare plans for strikes against Israel. These strikes would seemingly involve but not be limited to various Iranian-aligned or allied militias in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. Khamenei is assessed by the US as believing that Israel’s recent strikes against Hezbollah and Iran’s own missile and air defence networks require him to take robust but risky action in order to restore Iranian deterrent power. Worryingly, it is highly plausible that Iranian strikes will be carried out before Tuesday’s US presidential election.
The remaining question centres on what form Iranian retaliation may take, and how Israel and the US may respond in kind. Reflecting US desire to deter more aggressive Iranian action, the Joe Biden administration has sent additional US military forces to the Middle East. This includes B-52 heavy bombers which have traditionally been deployed as a messaging signal to Tehran that it should avoid escalatory activity. Yet, because Iran’s October strikes against Israel did not meet a direct US military riposte, there are concerns in Washington that Tehran may seek to sow chaos in advance of the election without the commensurate fear that America will impose significant costs for doing so.
There is also concern that the continuing escalation between Israel and Iran is diverting highly precious resources away from contingencies related to China. The US military recently deployed a number of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile defence systems to Israel in order to deter further Iranian strikes. These systems are highly capable but also extremely limited in number. If there were an escalation with China over Taiwan or the Philippines, the deployment of THAAD to Israel would significantly limit American combat power. Put simply, the US wants the Israel-Iran escalation resolved as soon as possible.
Extending this concern, Washington has redeployed a carrier strike group out of the Middle East region as a necessary response to ensure that carrier maintenance and deployment schedules remain at least somewhat flexible in relation to future contingencies over China, Russia and North Korea — all of which are exhibiting escalatory activity against the US or its allies.
Ultimately, the US will want any Iranian strike to be limited so that any Israeli response is limited in kind. But with Israel clearly holding the strategic initiative against its nemesis and with Donald Trump recently calling on Israel to take tougher action against Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may decide to truly take the gloves off if Tehran takes any significant action against his country. The fear in Washington is that any ensuing regional escalation may take place amid a condition of US political chaos.
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