November 1, 2024 - 1:00pm
Maybe it is just a coincidence, but it appears as if some diplomacy is breaking out between Russia and Ukraine in the final stretch before the US presidential election. The two warring countries are reportedly in the early stages of negotiations aimed at stopping air and drone strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure.
This initiative is taking place amid ongoing hostilities that have significantly damaged Ukraine’s energy sector. Russia’s attacks have had a devastating effect on Ukraine’s heating and electricity grid — a serious concern, considering that this year’s winter could be significantly colder than those of previous years due to the arrival of La Niña, a cyclical cooling of the Pacific that affects temperatures in Europe.
Since the war’s inception, Ukraine has lost more than 9 GW of electricity-generating capacity, further straining an already beleaguered energy system. Consequently, international support — especially from the EU — has been instrumental in reconstruction efforts. In 2024 alone, the EU has pledged €1.4 billion to enhance the resilience of Ukraine’s energy grid. One of the most severe aerial offensives occurred on 26 August this year when Russia launched over 200 missiles and drones targeting crucial energy sites across Ukraine.
In addition to grinding warfare on the front lines, Moscow has been targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the knowledge that a cold winter without electricity and heating could be lethal for thousands of Ukrainians. This could also trigger a new wave of refugees, which will threaten to destabilise Europe further. This raises an important question: why would Russia suddenly wish to enter into negotiations about constraining these types of attacks?
The answer is twofold. First, the results of the Brics meeting in Kazan were underwhelming for Russia. Instead of a blueprint for a new world order, the main outcome was to agree on more meetings where further steps will be discussed. Although certainly a PR win for Vladimir Putin, nothing of substance was gained, and one could even argue that the absence of leaders from Brazil (President Lula cited a head injury for missing the trip) and Saudi Arabia indicates that with US elections looming, some member states are beginning to distance themselves from the Brics project.
It remains unclear who will be the next US president, but it is becoming increasingly apparent that major global players are beginning to hedge their bets. They understand that the possible outcomes are either a continuation of Joe Biden’s policies or a return to Donald Trump’s unpredictable “peace through strength” approach, both of which create different policy options. Putin must anticipate that Trump has made ending the war in Ukraine a priority, and both men must at least appear to have “won”. This could explain why Moscow is beginning to lay some potential groundwork for future negotiations, such as an agreement on ceasing strikes on critical infrastructure.
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