October 27, 2024 - 12:00pm
After surviving an abortive party revolt this week and with his personal popularity ratings in free fall, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is looking for ways to regain control of the narrative. And he may have just found one in the form of a major policy U-turn pledging to cut the country’s immigration targets. Flanked by immigration minister Marc Miller, Trudeau announced a 21% cut to next year’s permanent resident arrivals, from 500,000 to 395,000. This is to be followed by further cuts to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.
The estimated effect of these changes is a 2% decline in the population after roughly three years of exorbitant demographic expansion, during which the country reached a total population of over 40 million, up from 37 million in 2021. These were the largest annual increases since the Baby Boom of the Fifties — the difference being that the vast bulk (97% in 2023) of this growth came from immigration rather than births.
Long touted by Canada’s political and business leaders as a catch-all solution to an ageing population, immigration had been a point of consensus for years. However, the effects of an increasingly permissive approach became too much to ignore, particularly in the areas of housing and labour markets. Trudeau’s announcement was coated with liberal rhetoric affirming Canada’s commitment to ensuring a pro-immigration society. The Prime Minister said “Immigration is our superpower — and always will be.” Nonetheless, he went on to emphasise the pragmatic case for immediate cuts in what seemed like a rare admission of error, conceding: “We didn’t get the balance quite right.” It is an overdue course correction for a botched policy undertaken, in large part, to juice growth numbers and prevent a recession.
The Prime Minister was also quick to castigate the business sector which had “exploit[ed] foreign workers while refusing to hire Canadians for a fair wage”. What’s more, “colleges and universities are bringing in more international students than communities can accommodate, treating them as an expendable means to line their own pockets”. Trudeau is entirely correct in identifying the major interest groups who advocated for these unsustainable numbers. But the question is why his federal government, which is responsible for approving visas — along with the various provincial governments (notably, Doug Ford’s Ontario Tory government), which are responsible for higher education and housing — listened to these lobbies and acquiesced for so long.
Indeed, the same lobbies are now up in arms. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce has warned that “decreasing our labour pool will impact employers across Canada struggling to find the workforce they need […]”. An op-ed in the Globe and Mail claims that “Canada is potentially heading for a labour supply decline”. Only now, these same pro-business voices have lost their credibility with the Canadian public: ditto for the Prime Minister, who will likely lose the next election, despite the U-turn.
As to whether cuts themselves will be enough to restore balance to the system — a problem for the next prime minister — everything will depend on whether the estimated 2.36 million temporary visa holders will actually leave the country once their visas expire in the next two years. The polite, conflict-averse Canadian public may not have the stomach to demand that migrants leave the country. Just like his father, holding onto power is Trudeau’s priority — but he won’t want to stick around for the tough decisions and potential acrimony.
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