A spectre is haunting Europe. Not communism, but the well-founded fear that the continent’s mighty car industry is under threat. The specific worry is China, which last year overtook Japan as the world’s biggest exporter of vehicles, having leapfrogged Germany the year before.
On Tuesday, the European Union announced its response: not a bold programme of investment to get EU manufacturers back on the front foot, but instead a package of punitive tariffs.
Tesla models manufactured in China will be hit with an additional import duty of 9% (on top of the current 10% tariff) while Chinese-owned firms face even higher rates, such as 19.3% for Geely and a punishing 36.3% for the state-owned SAIC.
The Chinese government isn’t happy, and is appealing to the World Trade Organisation. But whether or not the EU is engaged in illicit protectionism, it still has a great deal to protect. Automotive manufacturing is one sector in which Europe has held on to its industrial base. According to McKinsey, the sector accounts “for almost 7 percent of the region’s GDP” and is “directly or indirectly responsible for employing almost 14 million people”.
Europe’s vulnerability is that its advantages in diesel engine technology do not apply to the new world of electric vehicles. What’s more, Chinese motorists are switching to this technology much faster than their Western counterparts. More electric cars are sold in China than in the rest of the world put together. If electric is the future then, as things stand, it will be centred on China.
The EU’s move on tariffs therefore looks like a delaying tactic while European governments desperately work out what to do, though the bloc’s dispute with China could turn into a major headache for Keir Starmer. Thanks to Brexit, the UK can set its own trade policy: we don’t have to hike up our import duties in line with the EU. Last month, the new Labour government signalled that it wouldn’t.
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