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Keir Starmer should not join the EU’s trade war with China

Keir Starmer risks getting sucked into a trade dispute. Credit: Getty

August 21, 2024 - 4:00pm

A spectre is haunting Europe. Not communism, but the well-founded fear that the continent’s mighty car industry is under threat. The specific worry is China, which last year overtook Japan as the world’s biggest exporter of vehicles, having leapfrogged Germany the year before.

On Tuesday, the European Union announced its response: not a bold programme of investment to get EU manufacturers back on the front foot, but instead a package of punitive tariffs.

Tesla models manufactured in China will be hit with an additional import duty of 9% (on top of the current 10% tariff) while Chinese-owned firms face even higher rates, such as 19.3% for Geely and a punishing 36.3% for the state-owned SAIC.

The Chinese government isn’t happy, and is appealing to the World Trade Organisation. But whether or not the EU is engaged in illicit protectionism, it still has a great deal to protect. Automotive manufacturing is one sector in which Europe has held on to its industrial base. According to McKinsey, the sector accounts “for almost 7 percent of the region’s GDP” and is “directly or indirectly responsible for employing almost 14 million people”.

Europe’s vulnerability is that its advantages in diesel engine technology do not apply to the new world of electric vehicles. What’s more, Chinese motorists are switching to this technology much faster than their Western counterparts. More electric cars are sold in China than in the rest of the world put together. If electric is the future then, as things stand, it will be centred on China.

The EU’s move on tariffs therefore looks like a delaying tactic while European governments desperately work out what to do, though the bloc’s dispute with China could turn into a major headache for Keir Starmer. Thanks to Brexit, the UK can set its own trade policy: we don’t have to hike up our import duties in line with the EU. Last month, the new Labour government signalled that it wouldn’t.

And yet Labour is also pursuing a policy of “dynamic alignment” with the European Union. This means adopting EU regulation in some sectors of the economy with the hope of lowering trade barriers for UK exporters. Starmer should tread carefully. The EU has always sold access to its markets at a heavy price. No longer able to extract massive net contributions from the British taxpayer, Brussels will seek other ways of making us pay, such as insisting that we copy its tariffs on Chinese exports.

But would this be in our interests? Ultimately, the best protection against foreign competition is not trade barriers, but making a superior product. Through its own complacency, the West has allowed China to zoom ahead on electric cars. We do, however, have another chance when it comes to the next revolution: self-driving vehicles. This AI-powered technology has the potential to transform the way that we design, own, finance, insure, maintain and use cars. An enterprising nation like the UK would have every opportunity to generate commercial value by the bucketload — and not just in manufacturing.

Indeed, the new age of automated mobility could reconfigure the entire economy. And so the last thing we need to do is re-shackle ourselves to a lumbering regulatory behemoth.


Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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